On the cover of the 30JAN2006 Forbes magazine is the new Cell processor jointly developed between Sony, IBM, and Toshiba. The new Cell chip or '64-bit 8-way supercomputer system on a chip' is what Sony is using for the Playstation 3 (PS3) scheduled to debut this year (2006). The Forbes article, "Holy Chip!" is a great case study into some history of the Cell processor development and reveals some of its possibilities for the future beyond the PS3.
This chip has been in development for the past 5-years and started as an engineering challenge from Sony to IBM back in 2000 just as the Playstation 2 (PS2) was being launched. Sony executives wanted a 1000x increase over what the PS2 could do. Apparently the IBM, Sony, Toshiba team managed to yield a 50x increase over PS2 which pushed the capabilities of all the computer engineers/scientists involved to the limit. I suspect that Cell chip version 2 or some future iteration is probably in development and will attain the original goal of 1000x improvement over PS2 chip, the Emotion Engine, within the next 2-3 years.
The design and architecture of the Cell processor required many years of design and has since pushed and shifted the envelope of chip technology. "IBM's CELL Processor: Preview to Greatness?" If all goes as planned, this chip will not only be the center piece of Sony and Toshiba's digital entertainment devices, it will drive future computers and sensors. In the Forbes article, Raytheon studied the chip for 15-months and made decisions to use it in future weapons systems. The primary reason for this decision is its magnitude of graphics performance over all existing technologies.
The Cell processor can render full 30 frames per second dynamic computer generated full motion images at high-definition resolution in real time! This is significant because photo realistic computer graphics imagery is possible in real-time using the Cell processor. This will open many new doors of innovation for previously unimaginable product possibilities. One of the Cell-based demos developed by Toshiba dubbed "Magic Mirrors" turns your LCD monitor into a virtual real-time mirror! The demo simulates a real-world mirror in a program. This is only possible due to the advances with the Cell processor. Gaming and entertainment will not be the same.
IBM has published reseach papers ("The Cell project at IBM Research") about the Cell Project which is normally not how IBM does business. I guess IBM is making changes for getting the word out on this one long before products exist. Given that Sony will soon have its PS3 on the market.
I'd like to see how the Cell processor will change the personal and supercomputing arenas. Given the fact that the Cell is designed for grids and massive parallel processing, the next few years will be quite interesting as we see new products.
At any rate, there has not been a huge architectural shift in chip design for the past 20-years. The new cell chip required a completely new architectural and design approach over past chip designs. It is definitely innovative and time will tell what type of impact it has on the computing industry.
Sunday, January 22, 2006
Friday, January 20, 2006
Continuing Open Source Technology Inroads
Evidence is mounting that open source technology adoption is picking up steam. If you use Mozilla Firefox as your web browser or using OpenOffice.org for your word processing, spreadsheets, presentation and desktop database needs then you are using open source technology. As a matter of fact, open source is what is driving innovation in information technology today.
In Europe, a recent report stated that over 30% of users are now using Firefox and growing daily. The percentage is highest in the Scandinavian countries. That makes sense because that is the area where Linux originated. The percentages are much higher than I expected so early in 2006. Back in May 2005, 10% of business users were using Firefox. Eight months later in January 2006, I think this figure is now approaching the 20% mark and according to this site, that mark was attained in December 2005.
Not only is open source use expanding, realized cost savings for its use is now becoming more widely accepted. "Consultants report corporations embracing, saving with open source". This is not a panacea for reducing costs since there are inherent additional cost involved with open source technology adoption. If you have the skills with Linux and have a good intelligent team that can readily assimilate the technology and make good decisions then you will probably realize similar cost savings.
Another benefit to open source technology is innovation. With open source technology, you are only limited by your motivation, knowledge and ability to apply your skills to solve business problems or create new products. This cycle inspires the creativity required to innovate with information technology. With many proprietary technologies you are limited by concerns like
All the above just creates roadblocks to innovation in my opinion. Instead of focusing on innovative solutions you tend to focus on the licensing costs. This is discussed with respect to the weapons and defense industry in "Why open source works for weapons and defense".
I made the complete jump to using, integrating and researching open source technology a few years ago and can gladly report that all these facts, figures, percentages and postings are all real based on my experience. I can confidently state that running a business heavily utilizing open source technology is possible today in 2006. If this was not the case, Google, IBM, Yahoo!, and Amazon would not be succesful today. It is also well known that these companies spend millions on research and development of open source technology. As a matter of fact these are the types of companies that are primarily funding and driving the open source revolution.
There are scenarios where propietary technologies are much more mature and solve the business problem better. This is particularly true in the multimedia and groupware arena. However, in these areas of open source technology, I am seeing evolutionary improvements that I am sure in the near future rival the proprietary products. This viewpoint is also discussed in Open Source's Commercial Future.
Open source technology does have its own types of associated hidden costs and requires much more skill than proprietary solutions. However, mitigating these costs requires doing your homework, assembling a skilled team and making sure you know your business requirements. Having the skilled open source personnel on staff is a must. Acquiring these skills takes a different breed of knowledge worker. Open source technology is definitely not Windows and it requires good multi-dimensional people to make it work.
In Europe, a recent report stated that over 30% of users are now using Firefox and growing daily. The percentage is highest in the Scandinavian countries. That makes sense because that is the area where Linux originated. The percentages are much higher than I expected so early in 2006. Back in May 2005, 10% of business users were using Firefox. Eight months later in January 2006, I think this figure is now approaching the 20% mark and according to this site, that mark was attained in December 2005.
Not only is open source use expanding, realized cost savings for its use is now becoming more widely accepted. "Consultants report corporations embracing, saving with open source". This is not a panacea for reducing costs since there are inherent additional cost involved with open source technology adoption. If you have the skills with Linux and have a good intelligent team that can readily assimilate the technology and make good decisions then you will probably realize similar cost savings.
Another benefit to open source technology is innovation. With open source technology, you are only limited by your motivation, knowledge and ability to apply your skills to solve business problems or create new products. This cycle inspires the creativity required to innovate with information technology. With many proprietary technologies you are limited by concerns like
- Do you have legal licenses?
- Are the licenses expired?
- Do you have enough licenses?
- Do you have the funding to get licenses?
- Do you have time to justify the cost for the licenses?
- When will you acquire the technology so you can put it to use?
All the above just creates roadblocks to innovation in my opinion. Instead of focusing on innovative solutions you tend to focus on the licensing costs. This is discussed with respect to the weapons and defense industry in "Why open source works for weapons and defense".
I made the complete jump to using, integrating and researching open source technology a few years ago and can gladly report that all these facts, figures, percentages and postings are all real based on my experience. I can confidently state that running a business heavily utilizing open source technology is possible today in 2006. If this was not the case, Google, IBM, Yahoo!, and Amazon would not be succesful today. It is also well known that these companies spend millions on research and development of open source technology. As a matter of fact these are the types of companies that are primarily funding and driving the open source revolution.
There are scenarios where propietary technologies are much more mature and solve the business problem better. This is particularly true in the multimedia and groupware arena. However, in these areas of open source technology, I am seeing evolutionary improvements that I am sure in the near future rival the proprietary products. This viewpoint is also discussed in Open Source's Commercial Future.
Open source technology does have its own types of associated hidden costs and requires much more skill than proprietary solutions. However, mitigating these costs requires doing your homework, assembling a skilled team and making sure you know your business requirements. Having the skilled open source personnel on staff is a must. Acquiring these skills takes a different breed of knowledge worker. Open source technology is definitely not Windows and it requires good multi-dimensional people to make it work.
Friday, January 13, 2006
Security in 2005 and Linux
Information security in 2005 was really bad. Actually, it was the worst year on record as anticipated. Leading the insecure perception pack is Microsoft Windows. The monthly 'patch Tuesday' has become a beacon and target for hackers. We saw the realization of zero-day exploits and Microsoft's slow response to well known vulnerabilities.
There were a few bright spots, "Linux Security: A Good Thing Keeps Getting Better". If you happen to be using Linux then 2005 was not a bad year and actually was somewhat predictable. If you are using Windows, then 2005 was a really bad year.
If you can anticipate, predict and adapt to vulnerabilities then you have a better chance at defending your systems. Comparing Linux to Windows I would have to say that Linux is the environment where anticipating threats is easier.
I am involved in securing both Windows and Linux systems at work and at home. From my viewpoint over the past year, I would have to say I was more concerned about the Windows machines than I am about my Linux machines. One of the nice things with Linux is that I don't have to continually worry about mail bomb viruses, macros and various scripts invading my network. The recent WMF flaw is a recent example of what is lurking inside of Windows.
The permissions model in Linux/Unix and especially in SELinux is much more robust than what Windows provides. So for the next year, I still feel that running Linux systems is a much safer way to compute than Windows. We are in January 2006 now so all that can change with another exploit to Linux or Windows. If I was a betting person, I would place my bets on Linux being more secure. I am not a gambler so I prefer to remain adaptable and flexible to address any potential scenario.
Maybe it's time to get a Mac in addition to my Linux and Windows machines! Now that would round out the platform scenario to include another architecture and make my computing networks highly diversified.
I guess that's the type of computing world we live in today. Change is rapid and constant. At any time or even overnight a security issue can manifest itself thus requiring some type of remediation. At least this stuff is not going to bore anyone anytime soon.
There were a few bright spots, "Linux Security: A Good Thing Keeps Getting Better". If you happen to be using Linux then 2005 was not a bad year and actually was somewhat predictable. If you are using Windows, then 2005 was a really bad year.
If you can anticipate, predict and adapt to vulnerabilities then you have a better chance at defending your systems. Comparing Linux to Windows I would have to say that Linux is the environment where anticipating threats is easier.
I am involved in securing both Windows and Linux systems at work and at home. From my viewpoint over the past year, I would have to say I was more concerned about the Windows machines than I am about my Linux machines. One of the nice things with Linux is that I don't have to continually worry about mail bomb viruses, macros and various scripts invading my network. The recent WMF flaw is a recent example of what is lurking inside of Windows.
The permissions model in Linux/Unix and especially in SELinux is much more robust than what Windows provides. So for the next year, I still feel that running Linux systems is a much safer way to compute than Windows. We are in January 2006 now so all that can change with another exploit to Linux or Windows. If I was a betting person, I would place my bets on Linux being more secure. I am not a gambler so I prefer to remain adaptable and flexible to address any potential scenario.
Maybe it's time to get a Mac in addition to my Linux and Windows machines! Now that would round out the platform scenario to include another architecture and make my computing networks highly diversified.
I guess that's the type of computing world we live in today. Change is rapid and constant. At any time or even overnight a security issue can manifest itself thus requiring some type of remediation. At least this stuff is not going to bore anyone anytime soon.
Data Warehouses (2006) Growth Keeps Going and Going
Databases and more specifically data warehouses are growing at an ever faster rate. "Data, Data, Everywhere" provides some metrics on the largest known data warehouses. The size of these complexes are roughly doubling every 12-18 months. We have seen this and even greater where I work. Wal-mart is approaching 600 terabytes today (Jan2006) and they project to be above the petabyte mark later this year.
I remember in the late 1990s when a terabyte was milestone. Well, today most of the larger data warehouse complexes are approaching the petabyte mark. EBay and Yahoo have over 100 terabyte today. Google is not mentioned and as usual they are relatively quiet about their metrics. I would expect that Google is in the Yahoo range or larger. The same goes for Amazon. Yahoo is mentioned as the largest commerical data warehouse based on the Winter Corp. survey conducted in mid-2005.
One common architectural characteristic with all these large data warehouses is the use of massive parallel clustering. The Wal-Mart complex has a massively parallel 1000-processor system. There are no details about how many server machines are used. Rumors about Google are that they have a 100k server machine massively parallel system based on open source technology. The power consumption of a system like this is mind boggling alone.
The growth rates mentioned are staggering. Wal-Mart adds over a billion rows of new data a day. EBay adds approximately 750k rows a day. "Database Lessons, Petabyte Style" mentions a Stanford University research database (Stanford Linear Accelerator Center) that was adding 500GB, yes that is gigabyte, of data a day in 2004. That meant every 29-days they were accumulating data tha is equal to all the books in the Library Of Congress! Whoa!
What do all these data warehouse complexes have in common? They all require massive clusters of servers and all have issues with managing their storage capacity. As Inmon put it, 'volume, volume, volume'. That is and always will be the #1 problem with data warehousing.
I remember in the late 1990s when a terabyte was milestone. Well, today most of the larger data warehouse complexes are approaching the petabyte mark. EBay and Yahoo have over 100 terabyte today. Google is not mentioned and as usual they are relatively quiet about their metrics. I would expect that Google is in the Yahoo range or larger. The same goes for Amazon. Yahoo is mentioned as the largest commerical data warehouse based on the Winter Corp. survey conducted in mid-2005.
One common architectural characteristic with all these large data warehouses is the use of massive parallel clustering. The Wal-Mart complex has a massively parallel 1000-processor system. There are no details about how many server machines are used. Rumors about Google are that they have a 100k server machine massively parallel system based on open source technology. The power consumption of a system like this is mind boggling alone.
The growth rates mentioned are staggering. Wal-Mart adds over a billion rows of new data a day. EBay adds approximately 750k rows a day. "Database Lessons, Petabyte Style" mentions a Stanford University research database (Stanford Linear Accelerator Center) that was adding 500GB, yes that is gigabyte, of data a day in 2004. That meant every 29-days they were accumulating data tha is equal to all the books in the Library Of Congress! Whoa!
What do all these data warehouse complexes have in common? They all require massive clusters of servers and all have issues with managing their storage capacity. As Inmon put it, 'volume, volume, volume'. That is and always will be the #1 problem with data warehousing.
Monday, January 09, 2006
Organizational Culture and Environment
I was just reading Fortune 100 Best Places To Work 2006 this morning read about the best company, Genentech. They are one of the low-key Bay Area (as in San Fransicso) companies that has risen to the top through it's unique culture and environment. Genentech is a company for people who are smart, work for the greater cause, and are not necessarily pro-business. It's secret to success is its culture.
"Genentech: The best place to work now" This company has a very flat hierarchy, no titles, no special parking spaces, no dress code, has many onsite services (day care, Friday parties, etc.), spends a large percentage of its profits on research (the article states approx 40-50%), and has a culture and philosophy that prospective employees are carefully screened before hired. What is interesting is that Genentech's culture is compared to Apple and Google who are also low-key and high visibility companies. As a matter of fact, Apple does not even participate in the Fortune annual survey and Google is too young as a public to participate.
The Genentech CEO has an office that is 9x12 and has low-end steel furniture. For a multi billion dollar major biotech company, this reminds me of a Wal-Mart like mentality. If get a chance, read the book about Sam Walton "Made in America" and you will see the similarities in corporate mentality. Which has a very similar unique corporate culture.
Genentech stays laser focused on its roots which is research, innovation and the drive to a greater cause than the individual. Everything environment related appears to be centered around collaboration, progress, innovation, and value-added products.
So what does this have to do with software engineering? Everything. The culture and environment of an organization is critical to its long term success. This is something that organizations like Genentech, Apple, Google understand. If you are in a highly competetive field like IT services, internet, or biotech, you have to continue being innovative in order to survive. You must be able to atract the talent that shares your values, vision, remain focused, and passionate about that which you are doing. In Genentech's case it is research looking for cures to tough problems like cancer.
There are a several software engineering related books published that spend a great deal of time talking about the how the environment affects producitivity of the workers. Specifically in the Software Engineering field, "Peopleware" (Demarco, Lister) comes to mind. Others spend time discussing the impact of software engineering cultures and environments such as the quintessential "The Mythical Man-Month" (Brooks). The timeless classic by Brooks talks a great deal about mentalities, culture and environment back in the 70s.
It seems as though those companies who are extremely successful (i.e. Apple, Genentech, Google) have applied all the lessons learned from the past and make it happen today in 2006. As the saying goes, those that forget history are doomed to repeat it. Conversely, those that study history will learn from its lessons and will have the insight for steering the course to the future.
"Genentech: The best place to work now" This company has a very flat hierarchy, no titles, no special parking spaces, no dress code, has many onsite services (day care, Friday parties, etc.), spends a large percentage of its profits on research (the article states approx 40-50%), and has a culture and philosophy that prospective employees are carefully screened before hired. What is interesting is that Genentech's culture is compared to Apple and Google who are also low-key and high visibility companies. As a matter of fact, Apple does not even participate in the Fortune annual survey and Google is too young as a public to participate.
The Genentech CEO has an office that is 9x12 and has low-end steel furniture. For a multi billion dollar major biotech company, this reminds me of a Wal-Mart like mentality. If get a chance, read the book about Sam Walton "Made in America" and you will see the similarities in corporate mentality. Which has a very similar unique corporate culture.
Genentech stays laser focused on its roots which is research, innovation and the drive to a greater cause than the individual. Everything environment related appears to be centered around collaboration, progress, innovation, and value-added products.
So what does this have to do with software engineering? Everything. The culture and environment of an organization is critical to its long term success. This is something that organizations like Genentech, Apple, Google understand. If you are in a highly competetive field like IT services, internet, or biotech, you have to continue being innovative in order to survive. You must be able to atract the talent that shares your values, vision, remain focused, and passionate about that which you are doing. In Genentech's case it is research looking for cures to tough problems like cancer.
There are a several software engineering related books published that spend a great deal of time talking about the how the environment affects producitivity of the workers. Specifically in the Software Engineering field, "Peopleware" (Demarco, Lister) comes to mind. Others spend time discussing the impact of software engineering cultures and environments such as the quintessential "The Mythical Man-Month" (Brooks). The timeless classic by Brooks talks a great deal about mentalities, culture and environment back in the 70s.
It seems as though those companies who are extremely successful (i.e. Apple, Genentech, Google) have applied all the lessons learned from the past and make it happen today in 2006. As the saying goes, those that forget history are doomed to repeat it. Conversely, those that study history will learn from its lessons and will have the insight for steering the course to the future.
Tuesday, January 03, 2006
Forecasts for 2006
Good you made it through to the new year like I did. Like everyone else, this is the time to look out to the horizon and predict what may happen in the next 12-months. Notice I did not say crystal ball because that creates an imagery of mysticism for which the technology field is not. At least not in my viewpoint.
In 2005, AJAX was not even on the radar and it became the hottest topic of the year for web development. So what is on the radar this year? I'd put my bets on dynamic web development (i.e. Ruby on Rails, PHP Framework, and probably something like Trails for Java). Web platforms like Amazon.com, Saleforce.com and others will emerge and become dominant. Google and Yahoo are not sitting still opening their services and APIs for building applications on their platforms. Microsoft with it's aging .NET and emerging Windows Live initiatives will follow this wind.
The dynamic OO languages will continue to make strides and gain mind share. Especially Ruby on Rails and frameworks that are like this.
Java will continue to get more complex with its frameworks and technologies. Hopefully, Ruby has an influence on the course Java is charting and steer it towards simplicity and ease of use. This is definitely where Java is not today. The maturing of an open source Java VM and component based framework like Apache MyFaces could make this happen. For enterprise development, Java will continue to remain significant.
The web platforms (Amazon, EBay, Google, SalesForce, Yahoo) will make the operating system irrelevant. This may be the year that Windows looses its monopolistic grip. The desktop is becoming less relevant. At least I like to dream well. The Mac using Intel processors will have a huge impact if Apple does it right.
The web platforms use web services, APIs and widgets to provide you with all the tools you need to build applications. What about all the hype surrounding web services? Web services are the interim building parts for the web platforms. They will continue to exist and will evolve into building blocks for the web platforms.
In the browser space, Firefox will continue to inch away market share from IE. It is already used in high as 25% of computers in Europe and approximately 10% in USA. This is unconfirmed since the metrics on this is not easily gathered. I suspect that it will do the same in the rest of the world. In Europe, the penetration may even go as high as 35% by the end of 2006. Overall I wil predict a 20% market share for Firefox by December 2006.
Virtualization will continue its ascent. VMWare and Xen will be emerge as leaders in this field. This is where 64-bit and 128-bit computing make sense. It's time to get 64-bit processors. AMD is releasing this stuff and is relatively inexpensive. The next machine I purchase will be 64-bit.
Security issues will continue to plague the IT industry. 2005 was the worst on record. 2006 is going to be a lot worse. Zero day exploits and the continuing evolution of organized cyber crime makes this a profitable business for the 'dark side'.
Google will do some amazing things in the next year. Most of it will be unexpected yet sweeping as they have done in 2005. It is only 1/3/2006 and there are already rumors about a low-end non-Windows Google PC to be sold at Wal-Mart. What else is next? Maybe an AOL/Google web platform. Google remains secretive and only it knows where it is going.
Blu-Ray and the Sony PS3 will land this year. This is going to be the start of the mass migration to high-definition everything not just HDTV.
That's my first shot at forecasting the next year. This is a dynamic industry and I am sure there will a lot of unexpected events and technologies that are waiting to be unleashed on the world. Happy New Year!
In 2005, AJAX was not even on the radar and it became the hottest topic of the year for web development. So what is on the radar this year? I'd put my bets on dynamic web development (i.e. Ruby on Rails, PHP Framework, and probably something like Trails for Java). Web platforms like Amazon.com, Saleforce.com and others will emerge and become dominant. Google and Yahoo are not sitting still opening their services and APIs for building applications on their platforms. Microsoft with it's aging .NET and emerging Windows Live initiatives will follow this wind.
The dynamic OO languages will continue to make strides and gain mind share. Especially Ruby on Rails and frameworks that are like this.
Java will continue to get more complex with its frameworks and technologies. Hopefully, Ruby has an influence on the course Java is charting and steer it towards simplicity and ease of use. This is definitely where Java is not today. The maturing of an open source Java VM and component based framework like Apache MyFaces could make this happen. For enterprise development, Java will continue to remain significant.
The web platforms (Amazon, EBay, Google, SalesForce, Yahoo) will make the operating system irrelevant. This may be the year that Windows looses its monopolistic grip. The desktop is becoming less relevant. At least I like to dream well. The Mac using Intel processors will have a huge impact if Apple does it right.
The web platforms use web services, APIs and widgets to provide you with all the tools you need to build applications. What about all the hype surrounding web services? Web services are the interim building parts for the web platforms. They will continue to exist and will evolve into building blocks for the web platforms.
In the browser space, Firefox will continue to inch away market share from IE. It is already used in high as 25% of computers in Europe and approximately 10% in USA. This is unconfirmed since the metrics on this is not easily gathered. I suspect that it will do the same in the rest of the world. In Europe, the penetration may even go as high as 35% by the end of 2006. Overall I wil predict a 20% market share for Firefox by December 2006.
Virtualization will continue its ascent. VMWare and Xen will be emerge as leaders in this field. This is where 64-bit and 128-bit computing make sense. It's time to get 64-bit processors. AMD is releasing this stuff and is relatively inexpensive. The next machine I purchase will be 64-bit.
Security issues will continue to plague the IT industry. 2005 was the worst on record. 2006 is going to be a lot worse. Zero day exploits and the continuing evolution of organized cyber crime makes this a profitable business for the 'dark side'.
Google will do some amazing things in the next year. Most of it will be unexpected yet sweeping as they have done in 2005. It is only 1/3/2006 and there are already rumors about a low-end non-Windows Google PC to be sold at Wal-Mart. What else is next? Maybe an AOL/Google web platform. Google remains secretive and only it knows where it is going.
Blu-Ray and the Sony PS3 will land this year. This is going to be the start of the mass migration to high-definition everything not just HDTV.
That's my first shot at forecasting the next year. This is a dynamic industry and I am sure there will a lot of unexpected events and technologies that are waiting to be unleashed on the world. Happy New Year!
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